USDA Lifts Florida Citrus Forecast 2%, but Treasure Coast Growers Grapple With Historic Lows

Florida's battered citrus industry got a rare piece of encouraging news Thursday when the U.S. Department of Agriculture revised its production forecasts upward for oranges, grapefruit, lemons, and specialty crops including tangerines and tangelos — a modest but meaningful signal for growers across the Treasure Coast and Heartland regions who have watched their industry shrink for a quarter century.

The updated USDA forecast for the 2025–2026 season estimates Florida will produce 12.2 million industry-standard 90-pound boxes of oranges, up 2 percent from the initial forecast but still below the 12.28 million boxes harvested in 2024–2025. Grapefruit production climbed 4 percent, though it is now projected at 1.25 million boxes — down from 1.3 million boxes the prior season. Lemons surged 29 percent to 900,000 boxes, topping last season's 670,000 boxes and marking the first time the USDA has formally tracked Florida lemon production. Specialty crops hit 440,000 boxes, up from 400,000 boxes a year ago — a 13 percent increase.

The gains matter, but context cuts against any celebration. Because oranges and grapefruit make up the bulk of Florida's citrus output, the overall harvest remains below the 2024–2025 season — itself the lowest in more than 100 years of recorded production, according to public records.

Florida Citrus Mutual Executive Vice President and CEO Matt Joyner offered a measured take. "Growers have a long history of meeting adversity with resilience," Joyner said. "Going forward, we are really going to start to increase that overall box count for the industry. But it's just going to take time. We didn't get here overnight, and it's going to take us time to rebuild."

The disease eating at the industry's roots — Huanglongbing, or HLB, also called citrus greening — remains the most dire long-term threat, Joyner said, though he noted that solutions now exist where none did before. Hurricanes, freezes, and development pressure on former grove land have compounded the damage.

On the research funding front, state legislators are negotiating the next fiscal year budget with citrus research dollars in dispute. Senate President Ben Albritton, a citrus grower from Wauchula, has pushed for $204.5 million in funding against the $4 million proposed by the House. The current budget, which runs through June 30, included $100 million for research.

U.S. Rep. Scott Franklin, R-Lakeland, recently led Florida delegation members in urging the Environmental Protection Agency to review emerging citrus rootstock technologies as a tool to combat greening, calling them "one of the most promising paths forward." Franklin's March 30 letter noted Florida growers are prepared to invest in over 2.5 million new trees this year alone — if regulatory certainty and access to new disease-resistant solutions follow [NEEDS VERIFICATION on EPA review timeline].

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