Republicans Lead Democrats by 2,000 in SD 14 Early Voting

Republicans held a lead of more than 2,000 ballots over Democrats in early and mail voting in the Senate District 14 Special Election as of Friday afternoon, with Election Day set for Tuesday in the Hillsborough County-based seat.

The gap is a troubling sign for Democrat Brian Nathan, who is challenging Republican Rep. Josie Tomkow for a seat that has changed party hands three times since 2018. As of 1 p.m. Friday, 21,497 Republicans had cast ballots compared to 19,428 Democrats, with another 8,647 unaffiliated and minor-party voters also having voted. Overall early turnout stood at 16.56%.

Republicans are dominating in-person early voting, with 5,690 votes cast compared to 3,732 from Democrats. Mail ballot returns are closer, with 15,837 Republican ballots versus 15,707 Democratic ballots.

The Republican advantage has grown throughout the week. Monday's gap stood at roughly 1,000 ballots, widened to nearly 2,000 by Wednesday and crossed the 2,000-vote threshold Friday. Democrats typically outperform Republicans in early and mail voting before losing ground on Election Day — a pattern that makes the current numbers more significant heading into the final days of the race.

SD 14 covers parts of Tampa and the more conservative suburbs of northern Hillsborough County. Republicans hold a registration advantage, accounting for nearly 39% of the district's roughly 297,000 registered voters compared to 31% for Democrats. Nearly 27% of voters carry no party affiliation — a bloc Nathan, who serves as vice president of IBEW Local 915, has said he will need to turn out in order to win.

Tomkow entered the race in November and cleared the GOP primary field. She carries a significant financial advantage, with approximately $148,000 in her campaign account and another $315,000 in an affiliated political committee. Nathan had raised less than $65,000 total and held just over $12,000 on hand as of Feb. 12.

The seat opened when former Sen. Jay Collins left to become Lieutenant Governor under Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Early voting runs through Sunday, 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., at locations including the Robert L. Gilder Elections Service Center and multiple Hillsborough County libraries and recreation centers. Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. Tuesday and cannot be turned in at precincts on Election Day.

This article was generated with AI assistance using publicly available information. It was reviewed and approved by a human editor before publication. TC Sentinel uses AI writing tools in accordance with FTC guidelines.