NOAA Forecasts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Federal forecasters have issued a rare piece of good news for Florida's hurricane-weary coastline: NOAA is predicting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, a forecast that carries real weight for the roughly 500,000 residents of Martin, St. Lucie, and Indian River counties who live squarely in the crosshairs of any storm tracking up Florida's eastern seaboard.

Cooler-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions less favorable for storm development are the primary drivers of the subdued forecast, NOAA said. The outlook was released ahead of the June 1 start of hurricane season. A below-normal season is defined as fewer named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes than the 30-year historical average.

For Treasure Coast residents, the forecast offers a measure of relief after years of elevated seasonal outlooks. But local emergency managers have long cautioned against complacency. The region's low-lying barrier islands, the vulnerable Indian River Lagoon estuary, and aging residential infrastructure in western Port St. Lucie and Hobe Sound mean a single landfalling storm can be catastrophic regardless of seasonal numbers.

NOAA's seasonal outlooks carry acknowledged uncertainty. The agency notes that a below-normal prediction does not reduce the probability of a direct hit on any specific location. The 2013 Atlantic season, one of the quietest on record, still produced Hurricane Humberto.

Hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30.

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