Nathan Leads Tomkow by 405 Votes in SD 14 Special Election, Recount Hinges on Margin Math

Democrat Brian Nathan leads Republican Josie Tomkow by 405 votes in the Senate District 14 Special Election, but whether that margin is narrow enough to trigger a mandatory machine recount under Florida law remains unresolved.

The practical stakes are straightforward: if a recount is ordered, it would begin at 9 a.m. Tuesday and be open to the public. If it is not, Nathan moves closer to being certified the winner of the seat. Either way, the Canvassing Board is scheduled to certify official results and conduct a post-election audit on April 6.

Florida law requires a machine recount when a candidate loses by one-half of one percent or less of total votes cast. The problem is that the statute does not address rounding — and the Nathan-Tomkow margin sits precisely at that threshold depending on how the math is read. Carried to the hundredths decimal place, the difference is exactly 0.50 percentage points, within recount territory. Carried further to four decimal places, the margin is 0.5058 — technically outside it.

The Florida Secretary of State holds the authority to order a recount under state statute. The Florida Department of State had not responded to a request for comment as of Friday morning.

Hillsborough County, where the race was held, posted a public update Friday acknowledging the possibility of a recount but similarly declined to address whether the threshold includes rounding. If rounding applies, Nathan's margin would be recorded as 0.51 percentage points — outside recount territory.

A separate arithmetic quirk in the results adds another layer of uncertainty. Of the 80,128 ballots cast — a turnout of 26.77% — only 80,069 were actually counted. The 59-ballot gap reflects ballots left blank or marked improperly, such as by circling a candidate's name rather than filling in the bubble. Under Florida law, the only post-vote cure permitted is for mismatched mail ballot signatures; voters who mark a ballot incorrectly have no remedy.

The recount threshold is calculated against ballots counted, not ballots cast, meaning those 59 uncounted ballots have no bearing on whether a recount is triggered — but they do illustrate how a race of this closeness can turn on procedural details most voters never consider.

Any recount, if ordered, would take place at the Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections office.

This article was generated with AI assistance using publicly available information. It was reviewed and approved by a human editor before publication. TC Sentinel uses AI writing tools in accordance with FTC guidelines.