Moody Leads Vindman by 8, Tops Other Dems in Florida Senate Poll

Florida's U.S. Senate race is shaping up as an uphill climb for Democrats — even in a wave year — as new polling shows appointed Sen. Ashley Moody holding comfortable leads over every potential challenger tested.

In a survey of 1,165 likely voters conducted March 29–31 by Emerson College, Moody leads former National Security Council official Alex Vindman 46 percent to 38 percent — an eight-point margin. Her advantage swells to double digits against state Rep. Angie Nixon. Hector Mujica, the only Democrat who kept the race within single digits, has since announced he is running for Congress instead, leaving the field thinner than it appeared just weeks ago.

For Treasure Coast voters in Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River counties — territory that has moved sharply toward Republicans over the past decade — the polling underscores how much Florida's electoral map has hardened since Moody first won statewide office in 2018.

The numbers carry an asterisk, however. Moody's approval rating is modest: 36 percent of voters approve of her performance, while 28 percent disapprove and 36 percent are neutral or say they have not yet heard of her — a notable figure for someone who has held statewide office since January 2019, first as attorney general and now as senator. Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her to the seat last year after Marco Rubio departed to become secretary of state. Under Florida law, gubernatorial Senate appointees serve only until the next general election. Whoever wins in November will complete the term Rubio secured in 2022.

Moody's statewide electoral record is formidable. Running for attorney general in 2018 — a cycle that produced a triple recount in three separate Florida statewide races — she cleared 52 percent. Four years later, riding a Republican wave, she topped 60 percent, outspending Democratic opponent Aramis Ayala by roughly ten to one in hard money.

This cycle, the financial picture is more competitive. Moody raised just under $5.8 million from her February 2025 campaign launch through year's end. Vindman, trading on a national profile built during the first impeachment of President Donald Trump, collected $8 million in his first two months as a declared candidate and held more than $6 million cash on hand at quarter's end. Moody's first-quarter report had not been filed as of publication.

The November general election will determine who serves out the remainder of Rubio's 2022 term through January 2029.

This article was generated with AI assistance using publicly available information. It was reviewed and approved by a human editor before publication. TC Sentinel uses AI writing tools in accordance with FTC guidelines.