Jolly Leads Donalds by 5 Points in Florida Governor Poll, But Caveats Abound

A new statewide poll puts Democrat David Jolly ahead of Republican Byron Donalds by five percentage points in a hypothetical Florida governor's race — a result that could matter to Treasure Coast voters watching a 2026 matchup take shape, even as major caveats temper its meaning.

The Change Research survey, conducted June 11-14 among 1,273 Floridians — 1,015 of whom identified as likely voters — found Jolly at 49% to Donalds' 43% among likely voters. The gap widened to 50% when pollsters paired Jolly with a named running mate.

The numbers carry real weight but require scrutiny. Change Research is widely regarded as a left-leaning operation that frequently polls on behalf of Democratic candidates and causes. Critically, the survey provided respondents with biographical summaries of each candidate before asking whom they preferred — summaries drawn from each campaign's own public talking points. Jolly's description emphasized insurance reform, healthcare access and school investment. Donalds' framing leaned on cultural-war language and his Trump endorsement, making no mention of affordability — which 66% of all respondents identified as their most pressing personal concern. Among unaffiliated voters, that figure jumped to 74%.

Affordability anxiety runs deep on the Treasure Coast, where housing costs, homeowner's insurance premiums and grocery prices have squeezed households across Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River counties.

The poll's other findings complicate any clean narrative favoring Democrats. The Democratic Party posts a 55% unfavorable rating statewide — 24 points underwater — worse than Republicans, who sit at 50% unfavorable to 41% favorable. Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, was above water at 51% approval. President Donald Trump ran 47% approval to 53% disapproval.

Jolly's edge appears driven less by Democratic enthusiasm than by cross-party appeal. The poll found him drawing 9% of Republican voters and leading unaffiliated voters 53% to 28% over Donalds. Donalds, by contrast, secured only 77% loyalty among GOP respondents — a softer base than his party's registration advantage of 1.5 million voters might suggest.

Three separate "probing questions" — asked after the head-to-head test and not factored into vote share — found majorities expressing serious doubts about Donalds over his campaign's AI-industry funding, stock-trading allegations and a reported statement that Black Americans fared better under Jim Crow. Fifty-four percent of Republicans said the AI funding issue raised concerns.

Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody led Democratic challenger Alex Vindman by three points in the same survey.

Neither candidate has secured their party's nomination. Florida's 2026 gubernatorial primary remains months away.

This article was generated with AI assistance using publicly available information. It was reviewed and approved by a human editor before publication. TC Sentinel uses AI writing tools in accordance with FTC guidelines.