Casey DeSantis Plunges to 7% in Florida GOP Governor Poll

Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis posted her worst numbers yet in a hypothetical 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, drawing just 7 percent support among likely GOP voters in a new Emerson College poll. The showing raises fresh questions about whether a campaign launch is still viable.

The Emerson survey, conducted March 29-31, found U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds of Naples — backed by President Donald Trump — leading the field with 44 percent when DeSantis is included. Without her in the race, support for Donalds climbs to 46 percent. The numbers suggest DeSantis is drawing support from the margins rather than from Donalds, whose grip on the primary appears firm regardless of whether she enters the race.

For Treasure Coast Republicans, the poll matters in a direct way. Donalds represents the congressional district immediately south of Martin County. A Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate from the region would reshape campaign dynamics from Stuart to Sebastian. Rep. Brian Mast, R-Fla., whose FL-21 district covers Martin and St. Lucie counties, has not publicly committed to a gubernatorial endorsement [UNVERIFIABLE — editor must confirm].

Former House Speaker Paul Renner draws 3 percent without DeSantis in the field, dropping to 2 percent with her included. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and political outsider James Fishback each hold at 4 percent in both scenarios. A striking 34 percent of respondents remain undecided even with DeSantis as an option — down only modestly from 39 percent in her absence. The data suggests her potential candidacy has not energized the Republican base.

The poll also tested DeSantis in a general election, where she fares poorly. Former Republican Congressman David Jolly leads her 40 percent to 39 percent. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings trails her by the same two-point margin — both results within the survey's plus-or-minus 2.8 percentage point margin of error.

DeSantis' slide in the numbers tracks with deepening scrutiny over the Hope Florida Foundation, which received $10 million in a Medicaid settlement with insurer Centene. A portion of those funds was directed toward political advertising opposing a 2024 ballot amendment to legalize recreational marijuana, according to public records. Political observers say the controversy drained momentum from any prospective campaign before it formally began.

Florida's candidate qualifying period for the 2026 cycle opens in April 2026, establishing a de facto deadline for DeSantis to decide.

This article was generated with AI assistance using publicly available information. It was reviewed and approved by a human editor before publication. TC Sentinel uses AI writing tools in accordance with FTC guidelines.