Treasure Coast House Races Take Shape as Qualifying Deadline Approaches

The political landscape of Florida's Treasure Coast is shifting fast as the state's legislative qualifying deadline bears down, with a high-profile endorsement in House District 85, dominant early polling in HD 87, and a statewide pattern of competitive seats going unchallenged setting the table for what could be a consequential election cycle.

State Rep. Toby Overdorf, the Republican incumbent representing House District 85, has endorsed Anthony Bonna to succeed him in the seat — a move that lands just days before the qualifying deadline and carries significant weight in a district where establishment support can shape a primary before voters fully tune in. The nature of the endorsement and Bonna's background were not detailed in available materials, but the timing is deliberate. Overdorf's blessing serves as a signal to donors, local party machinery, and voters about who the incumbent believes can hold the seat.

Meanwhile, the race to reclaim HD 87 — a Jupiter-anchored district that briefly made national headlines in April when Democratic Rep. Emily Gregory pulled off a special election upset — is already producing hard data. A poll conducted May 26–28 by Miami-based Inquire, LLC, and obtained by Florida Politics, shows former Lake Clarke Shores Town Council member Jon Maples leading Republican primary opponent Jonathan Rubin by 53% to 10%, with 37% undecided. Even a full consolidation of undecided voters behind Rubin would leave Maples the winner.

Maples carries a 54% favorability rating. Rubin, by contrast, is largely unknown — 51% of respondents said they had never heard of him. When polled on whether Rubin's failure to vote in multiple elections, including two of Trump's presidential runs, would affect their decision, 65% said it made them less likely to support him.

Gregory defeated Maples in April with just over 51% of the vote despite being significantly outraised. Republicans, who had held the seat comfortably before that upset — former Rep. Mike Caruso won re-election by 19 points in 2024 — are now pouring institutional support back behind Maples for a rematch in November.

The HD 87 contest sits against a broader and troubling statewide backdrop: with qualifying days away, five competitive Florida House seats — three Democrat-held, two Republican-controlled — remain unchallenged by the opposing party, according to Florida Politics. The affected districts span Palm Beach, Orange, Duval, Miami-Dade, and Pinellas counties. One Palm Beach County district backed Kamala Harris by just one percentage point in 2024. None has a major-party challenger.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried's organization said it has worked to recruit candidates, citing more than 1,300 Democrats who expressed interest in running over the past 18 months. Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power took a sharper line, declaring, "The Florida Democrats are on the verge of extinction."

Both parties are managing candidate recruitment under the pressure of an Aug. 18 primary and a November general election.

Whether the Overdorf endorsement in HD 85 closes the field or invites a challenger before the deadline remains to be seen. Political operatives on both sides of the aisle are watching qualifying filings closely this week.

--- STATUS — What we know: Overdorf has endorsed Bonna for HD 85; Maples leads Rubin 53–10 in an HD 87 GOP primary poll; five competitive statewide House seats are currently unchallenged. What is confirmed: Poll figures, margins, and party statements sourced from Florida Politics and Florida Daily reporting. What is pending: Bonna's full candidate background and platform According to initial reports,; final qualifying filings as deadline closes; whether opposing-party challengers emerge in any of the five uncontested competitive seats before the deadline.

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