Rising Seas and Surges Could Swamp Treasure Coast Communities

Coastal communities from Coral Gables to the Treasure Coast face compounding flood risk when long-term sea-level rise and extreme storm surge events occur simultaneously, according to a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Natural Hazards.

The research, led by V.J. Alarcon and colleagues, modeled inundation scenarios in Coral Gables, Florida, where low elevation and dense development mirror conditions found throughout Martin, St. Lucie, and Indian River counties. When gradual mean sea-level rise is layered on top of an extreme surge event — such as those driven by hurricanes or nor'easters — flood depths and the geographic footprint of inundation grow substantially beyond what either factor would produce alone, the study found. According to available information,

For Treasure Coast residents, the findings carry direct relevance. The Indian River Lagoon, the low barrier islands of Hutchinson Island, and flood-prone neighborhoods along the St. Lucie River share the same flat topography and tidal vulnerability documented in the study. Boaters, beachgoers, and waterfront property owners in the region face similar dynamics during active hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30.

The paper has been cited by 14 subsequent studies, signaling its weight within the coastal hazards research community.

Local emergency managers and land-use planners have not yet commented on the study's implications for Treasure Coast zoning or infrastructure. A direct quote from lead author Alarcon was not available at press time.

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