Iran War Drives Gas Price Surge on Treasure Coast, Threatening Local Economy

Drivers filling up on the Treasure Coast are paying significantly more at the pump than they were two weeks ago, and energy experts warn the worst may not be over.

The Iran war, now entering its second week, has sent crude oil prices into historic volatility — briefly spiking above $119 per barrel Monday before settling closer to $87 — still roughly $15 higher than before U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran began Feb. 28, according to PBS NewsHour and the Associated Press.

The national average price for a gallon of gasoline has risen nearly 50 cents since the conflict started, hitting $3.45 nationwide according to AAA — a 19% jump in a single month. Local prices across South Florida and the Treasure Coast are tracking that surge, according to WPEC.

The root cause is geography. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway bordered to the north by Iran, handles roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply — approximately 15 million barrels — according to independent research firm Rystad Energy. Iranian missile and drone threats have effectively halted tanker traffic from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE. Bahrain's national oil company declared force majeure after an Iranian attack set its refinery ablaze. Saudi Aramco shut its Ras Tanura refinery following an Iranian drone strike According to available information,.

"What drove the prices up, of course, was the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz," Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and one of the world's foremost energy economists, told PBS NewsHour Monday. Yergin warned that an extended closure combined with sustained infrastructure damage could push the world toward recession — what he called a "nightmare scenario."

The timing is particularly painful for Treasure Coast business owners. Just days ago, a Supreme Court ruling struck down Trump's tariffs, offering local retailers and importers a rare piece of good news. Treasure Coast businesses expressed cautious optimism following that decision, according to Treasure Coast News. But analysts warn that rising energy costs — embedded in shipping, manufacturing and everyday overhead — could rapidly erase those savings.

The broader economic picture is grim. February's jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 positions nationally, and veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni has raised the probability of a U.S. stock market crash to 35%, up from 20% earlier this year, citing the twin pressures of oil-driven inflation and slowing growth. Goldman Sachs warned in an analyst note that if elevated oil prices persist, inflation could climb from 2.4% in January to 3% by year's end.

President Trump on Sunday sought to reassure Americans, calling the price spike temporary and declining to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Group of Seven industrialized nations also chose against coordinated reserve releases for now, though French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the bloc remains "ready to take necessary and coordinated steps."

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could resume normally soon, citing a large tanker that transited the Gulf in the past 24 hours According to available information,.

For families budgeting on the Treasure Coast, "soon" may not be soon enough. Every cent added to the price of a gallon of gas is money not spent at a local restaurant, hardware store, or marina — the kinds of businesses that form the backbone of Martin, St. Lucie, and Indian River County economies.

How long prices stay elevated depends almost entirely on how long the shooting continues.

This article was generated with AI assistance using publicly available information. It was reviewed and approved by a human editor before publication. TC Sentinel uses AI writing tools in accordance with FTC guidelines.